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OB
THE LONG VIEW

See the bigger picture.

Bitcoin, beyond the daily noise. Track the price. Understand the trajectory.

₿BitcoinBTC / USDLoading market dataOne asset. A different perspective.

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BITCOIN PRICE
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Connecting to Coinbase
POWER LAW TREND
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Fitted long-term baseline
PRICE / TREND
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At historical cutoff
CIRCULATING SUPPLY
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of 21 million BTC◔

Bitcoin spot price

CONNECTING

BTC / USD · Coinbase Exchange · Real market candles

——selected range
Range high —Range low —
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Click or tap a price to pin it. Select a second price to compare.
Fetching recent pricesScroll / pinch to zoom · Drag to pan

Bitcoin & the power law

LONG-TERM

Daily price against Bitcoin’s modeled growth trajectory.

Scroll / pinch to zoom · Drag to pan · Click to pin
USD · logarithmic scale
₿ observatory
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Source: Coin Metrics · Daily observationsHover to inspect price & bounds ↔

The power of time

A model for perspective, built on Bitcoin’s history.

POWER LAW
P(t) = a × tb
t = days since the genesis block · Jan 3, 2009
Growth exponent—
Log-space R²—
Observations—
Explore the model horizon2030
Modeled trend · Jan 1, 2030—
↗

An extrapolation of a historical fit. The historical envelope contains loaded prices, including cycle peaks. Future prices can move outside it.

Every cycle has a story

The drawdowns behind the long-term ascent.

Snapshot drawdownat historical cutoff—
All-time high——
✦

Perspective matters. Even Bitcoin’s strongest long-term trends include deep drawdowns.

A dollar isn’t what it used to be.

Explore Bitcoin’s price in constant dollars using the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

UNDER THE HOOD

Data & methodology

Price history & live quote

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Historical daily USD prices and circulating supply come from Coin Metrics Community Data. The spot quote and recent OHLC candles are fetched from Coinbase Exchange (with Coinbase retail spot as a quote fallback) on load, every minute, and on refresh. If the request fails, the last stored quote or historical observation is shown with its timestamp. The spot chart refreshes recent exchange candles separately from the long-term history. Saved candles are clearly timestamped if the live endpoint is unavailable. A live quote does not extend the long-term historical chart.

Power law

We fit log₁₀(price) = intercept + exponent × log₁₀(days since January 3, 2009) to every positive daily observation. R² is measured in log space. The default historical envelope uses a power law fitted to record-setting local peaks (highest daily price within 365 observations on either side), shifted upward just enough to enclose every loaded daily price, with a small 0.005-log-unit margin. The lower curve uses the fitted trend shifted down to the lowest historical residual, with the same margin. The bounds are calibrated using the full history, not an out-of-sample prediction. Optional ±1σ and ±2σ bands use log-price residual standard deviations and may exclude extreme peaks. No band is a forecast confidence interval. The horizon slider extrapolates this same fit.

Inflation adjustment

U.S. CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted (BLS series CUUR0000SA0). Each daily price is multiplied by the latest CPI value ÷ its month’s CPI. Beyond the latest CPI release, the latest available value is held constant.

View the BLS source ↗

Drawdown

Daily price ÷ the highest price observed up to that date − 1. This uses daily observations, so intraday highs and lows can differ.